* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 32 32 29 27 26 29 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 32 32 29 27 26 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 14 21 20 31 33 37 36 37 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 5 3 3 0 3 4 5 3 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 274 266 255 254 264 274 253 249 245 239 235 247 248 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 167 167 163 159 157 155 157 156 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 172 172 172 166 161 158 153 152 149 148 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 71 72 75 72 71 73 74 71 69 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 45 55 58 46 31 29 23 27 18 25 42 200 MB DIV 59 31 44 67 95 86 61 69 62 69 49 80 42 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 6 2 6 2 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 997 899 816 759 705 681 705 737 610 584 635 486 361 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.9 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 17.4 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.8 46.1 47.3 48.5 50.6 52.6 54.6 56.5 58.2 59.8 61.2 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 48 41 38 53 48 49 57 81 73 71 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 2. 9. 17. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -12. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 4. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. 4. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED