* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 31 27 21 19 21 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 32 31 27 21 19 21 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 30 30 29 26 22 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 15 17 21 30 38 38 49 40 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 0 1 3 2 3 5 6 6 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 276 274 263 260 258 268 268 250 252 245 242 250 246 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 162 166 168 166 162 160 159 160 160 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 169 173 173 173 173 171 167 164 163 162 159 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 65 68 69 64 68 68 71 72 68 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 31 31 38 49 39 37 43 48 57 66 68 200 MB DIV 56 68 41 26 48 98 71 58 51 19 19 20 22 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -5 -6 -5 -6 -9 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1270 1242 1155 1038 939 800 738 741 521 428 425 147 55 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 49 53 50 51 53 54 49 52 58 73 94 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 9. 16. 22. 27. 32. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -23. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 2. -4. -6. -4. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED