* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 07/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 52 50 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 52 50 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 48 47 45 41 38 34 30 29 30 34 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 20 26 32 38 43 44 36 29 30 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -6 -3 4 6 4 2 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 270 273 275 270 259 201 198 173 169 180 193 191 193 SST (C) 16.9 13.1 11.5 11.0 11.1 10.1 7.9 7.2 6.8 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.5 POT. INT. (KT) 76 69 68 68 68 67 65 64 63 61 60 60 59 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 67 66 66 66 65 64 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -52.3 -50.1 -47.7 -47.6 -46.6 -47.0 -47.6 -48.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 60 66 67 68 67 70 70 63 60 58 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 10 12 11 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 58 50 44 55 60 67 106 105 89 114 120 102 200 MB DIV 40 39 42 51 45 52 103 -65 -111 -136 -162 -163 -170 700-850 TADV 30 28 42 37 36 -19 44 -73 -42 -1 -7 3 12 LAND (KM) 433 336 315 344 426 524 699 822 709 694 712 717 697 LAT (DEG N) 43.8 45.7 47.5 49.3 51.1 54.7 58.1 61.0 63.3 64.8 65.7 66.4 67.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.4 49.0 48.6 48.4 48.2 48.3 48.9 49.3 48.8 47.1 45.9 45.4 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 18 18 18 18 16 13 10 7 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 30 CX,CY: 13/ 27 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 3. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 7. 5. -7. -21. -33. -44. -53. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 07/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 07/25/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)