* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 07/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 32 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 32 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 29 28 26 23 21 22 24 29 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 16 18 24 27 42 46 41 32 33 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -2 -5 1 6 9 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 267 262 275 281 253 231 181 161 160 164 165 169 174 SST (C) 23.3 19.2 14.5 12.0 11.0 10.2 9.0 7.9 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.7 7.1 POT. INT. (KT) 97 80 71 68 68 67 66 64 63 62 61 61 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 74 68 66 66 65 64 63 62 61 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -53.1 -53.4 -54.2 -54.5 -53.2 -51.4 -48.3 -48.5 -48.5 -49.6 -50.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 55 62 66 70 64 65 65 62 58 61 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 43 72 78 83 110 91 125 61 39 38 50 80 200 MB DIV 54 47 29 49 59 42 75 54 -103 -158 -169 -174 -200 700-850 TADV 14 9 27 40 23 27 20 -15 -17 -3 -3 7 18 LAND (KM) 661 487 362 303 309 445 466 637 711 662 594 521 434 LAT (DEG N) 41.0 42.9 44.8 46.7 48.5 52.3 55.7 58.6 60.9 62.6 63.9 65.1 66.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 50.0 49.3 49.1 48.8 49.1 50.1 51.2 51.4 51.1 50.7 50.8 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 19 18 18 16 13 10 8 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 26 CX,CY: 13/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 13. 9. 3. -1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -6. -16. -26. -33. -41. -48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 07/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 07/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)