* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 07/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 37 37 36 33 29 27 28 31 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 19 21 33 38 35 32 24 20 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 10 7 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 269 275 274 276 227 179 171 165 178 183 173 172 SST (C) 24.9 24.2 21.3 16.5 12.9 10.4 8.7 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.0 POT. INT. (KT) 107 102 87 74 69 67 65 64 63 62 61 61 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 89 78 69 66 65 64 63 61 60 60 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -50.4 -48.3 -47.1 -47.1 -48.5 -49.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 53 58 64 65 64 59 62 56 50 53 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 13 52 93 93 113 130 132 93 29 15 15 67 200 MB DIV 20 50 48 34 41 53 37 72 34 6 -39 -90 -134 700-850 TADV 8 14 9 37 33 40 2 -56 -40 -22 -8 -2 2 LAND (KM) 891 714 551 380 265 196 290 356 535 630 707 765 734 LAT (DEG N) 38.7 40.4 42.1 44.0 45.8 49.4 52.7 55.4 57.5 59.0 60.2 61.1 62.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 51.4 50.5 50.2 49.9 50.6 51.5 51.9 51.7 51.5 50.9 50.5 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 18 15 12 9 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 7. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -6. -14. -22. -28. -35. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 07/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 07/25/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)