* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 07/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 39 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 39 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 42 40 36 32 28 28 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 13 22 29 35 46 41 32 25 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 -5 -3 3 3 5 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 230 247 277 273 269 251 210 184 163 171 190 182 183 SST (C) 25.0 25.0 24.3 21.3 16.4 11.5 9.4 8.5 8.4 7.9 7.4 6.8 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 103 87 73 68 66 65 63 62 62 61 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 94 90 78 69 66 65 64 62 61 61 60 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -52.0 -49.4 -47.5 -47.5 -47.1 -48.1 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 54 58 64 65 65 61 57 60 53 51 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 35 86 109 113 126 128 101 76 50 24 18 200 MB DIV 23 14 54 36 34 43 55 61 59 70 -54 -94 -137 700-850 TADV 0 16 25 21 28 34 25 11 -34 -25 -17 -15 -10 LAND (KM) 1055 878 707 515 344 149 258 306 469 630 750 875 906 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 38.8 40.4 42.3 44.1 47.7 51.2 54.4 56.8 58.4 59.7 60.8 61.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 52.8 51.8 51.3 50.7 50.8 51.4 51.7 51.9 51.2 49.7 48.1 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 18 19 18 18 17 14 10 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -11. -21. -29. -37. -45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 07/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 07/25/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)