* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 06/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 32 38 46 51 55 56 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 32 38 46 51 55 56 55 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 40 42 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 4 4 9 13 19 21 30 33 40 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 80 176 214 241 244 257 245 272 255 270 272 273 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 130 133 134 140 142 143 145 140 142 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 129 133 135 143 145 147 147 142 142 142 138 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 60 60 56 53 50 51 49 49 47 51 48 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 14 9 5 15 18 24 23 19 22 19 17 0 200 MB DIV 34 33 29 24 20 12 27 29 9 25 19 21 45 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 4 8 8 15 7 9 -1 LAND (KM) 957 886 828 775 730 647 368 271 366 360 223 164 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.3 49.4 50.8 52.1 55.1 58.3 61.5 64.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 28 33 35 44 37 42 44 41 43 58 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 18. 26. 31. 35. 36. 35. 34. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 06/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 06/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)