* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 41 45 49 52 53 54 53 53 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 41 45 49 52 53 54 53 53 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 39 41 42 42 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 11 15 15 20 20 24 29 31 27 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 3 -1 0 0 0 -4 0 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 274 266 219 227 200 201 231 228 259 270 286 286 307 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 139 136 135 136 136 138 140 140 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 120 118 115 111 112 112 114 116 116 116 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 11 7 14 8 14 5 12 8 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 58 60 53 49 43 32 22 18 16 15 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 18 19 20 19 20 19 20 22 25 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 66 73 71 40 49 74 75 81 61 70 -11 -56 -66 200 MB DIV 64 61 84 89 63 66 39 13 0 -13 -20 -13 -7 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 5 1 -1 0 3 -6 -11 -4 5 -1 LAND (KM) 424 378 314 262 213 176 154 133 115 111 104 101 101 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 5 4 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 67 62 46 36 24 18 16 13 12 12 12 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 9. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. 23. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/23/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/23/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)