* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 53 57 59 57 57 54 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 53 57 59 57 57 54 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 43 46 48 49 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 23 18 16 19 15 25 20 29 33 30 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 -6 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 293 276 268 267 231 196 199 223 219 252 250 277 285 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 144 144 142 139 138 137 137 138 140 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 125 127 126 121 116 114 113 113 114 116 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 11 8 12 7 15 9 11 3 11 700-500 MB RH 73 69 70 66 62 60 51 48 39 28 22 22 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 16 16 18 18 20 20 19 21 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 90 82 78 80 70 49 74 77 101 102 27 -12 -44 200 MB DIV 82 76 68 98 72 60 70 54 24 -19 -26 -16 -34 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 7 1 2 -4 -2 -2 -3 1 -5 3 LAND (KM) 189 272 355 416 336 275 237 222 207 194 184 177 178 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 5 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 35 50 60 52 40 32 29 26 23 20 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 27. 27. 24. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/23/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/23/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)