* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 51 56 58 57 56 55 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 51 56 58 57 56 55 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 45 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 20 17 17 15 26 23 31 37 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -4 0 5 3 3 0 1 -2 -2 -8 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 302 305 283 279 266 245 224 206 224 219 235 228 251 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 140 142 143 141 138 137 139 138 138 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 120 123 123 124 119 114 113 116 114 114 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -51.6 -51.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 10 8 12 9 15 9 12 5 700-500 MB RH 79 76 73 69 73 65 59 52 49 40 30 27 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 18 21 22 22 20 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 88 100 91 80 83 87 80 96 110 113 95 7 -23 200 MB DIV 59 92 87 75 75 77 74 63 24 25 -18 -32 -19 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 -2 0 -4 -5 3 0 LAND (KM) 104 153 202 262 322 395 295 261 266 231 149 152 195 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 4 1 1 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 23 33 41 63 45 39 39 33 17 17 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 19. 26. 31. 33. 32. 31. 30. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)