* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 37 43 50 51 50 49 50 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 37 43 50 51 50 49 50 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 11 16 21 19 23 15 22 25 30 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 0 4 2 1 -2 -1 1 -5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 266 284 286 267 283 277 255 215 204 176 207 211 225 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 137 140 140 142 142 141 140 140 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 117 118 121 120 121 119 118 116 116 117 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 13 12 13 8 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 69 68 68 57 55 47 46 42 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 20 21 24 23 20 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 78 88 97 82 77 95 82 99 88 88 71 78 28 200 MB DIV 50 59 88 64 73 71 42 66 23 35 12 4 -11 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 2 5 5 1 0 0 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 137 173 209 254 298 375 424 367 311 267 267 244 200 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 22 24 25 24 24 26 30 30 30 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 31. 30. 29. 30. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)