* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 46 51 55 56 55 51 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 46 51 55 56 55 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 10 15 21 22 22 28 27 35 39 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -3 2 1 3 0 0 -5 -1 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 259 278 291 281 263 270 247 246 221 233 227 240 234 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 135 137 141 144 142 142 142 140 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 117 118 118 121 123 121 120 118 116 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 11 9 14 9 16 10 13 700-500 MB RH 76 76 79 76 70 67 63 56 47 38 32 25 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 14 14 17 18 18 16 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 89 84 93 98 85 86 87 91 81 86 81 64 7 200 MB DIV 53 65 60 72 78 39 78 48 19 14 6 -27 -36 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 -2 -2 4 0 3 -1 0 -7 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 70 113 156 201 247 332 407 366 289 234 178 145 128 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 16 20 24 24 25 28 30 27 21 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 36. 35. 31. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/22/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)