* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 06/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 36 43 51 58 61 62 61 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 36 43 51 58 61 62 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 32 37 44 50 55 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 1 -3 0 0 6 -1 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 223 234 285 337 54 247 255 224 174 185 181 203 201 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 129 130 132 133 135 136 134 135 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 111 111 111 114 114 115 115 113 115 116 114 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 77 77 72 70 63 61 52 50 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 89 88 99 105 105 107 105 110 85 78 46 42 200 MB DIV 59 59 48 51 59 52 63 71 49 18 27 9 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 38 49 59 73 86 118 193 230 249 219 214 225 239 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.4 23.1 23.5 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.1 89.2 89.2 89.2 89.0 88.9 88.6 88.8 89.2 89.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 9 13 17 18 19 18 17 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 31. 38. 41. 42. 41. 40. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 06/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962012 INVEST 06/21/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 06/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)