* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952012 08/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 26 31 36 43 49 55 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 27 31 37 42 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 20 23 24 26 26 27 31 37 44 51 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 13 17 14 10 14 11 11 12 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 4 1 -1 1 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 341 316 328 340 17 11 63 72 65 83 73 97 90 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.5 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 161 165 167 167 166 166 158 145 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 141 142 144 149 151 151 149 148 141 129 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 10 8 10 11 12 12 12 10 10 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 57 61 65 64 65 62 63 60 59 59 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 4 4 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 24 10 18 5 11 3 24 4 11 -10 200 MB DIV -19 23 16 -1 3 -12 -17 0 -1 0 -13 18 -5 700-850 TADV 2 3 -2 -3 0 -5 -4 -2 0 5 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 71 20 -30 -92 -147 -318 -279 -108 28 152 234 188 195 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.7 99.3 101.0 102.7 104.4 105.9 107.1 108.2 109.4 110.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 25 49 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 16. 23. 29. 35. 40. 43. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952012 INVEST 08/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952012 INVEST 08/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)