* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 53 57 58 57 58 57 53 47 46 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 53 57 58 57 58 57 53 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 50 57 61 62 63 63 57 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 24 22 21 9 32 53 72 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -5 -6 -7 -5 -2 -5 -2 0 8 9 5 SHEAR DIR 357 344 351 347 359 356 9 348 256 220 196 209 220 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.6 21.1 16.3 12.0 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 142 137 131 120 119 122 122 87 75 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 122 118 112 101 100 102 104 79 71 69 69 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.8 -56.8 -56.5 -56.4 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 54 55 58 59 56 59 53 50 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 14 11 8 5 4 6 8 14 850 MB ENV VOR 102 97 90 86 79 48 36 -7 20 24 15 2 -40 200 MB DIV 33 28 13 -16 1 -6 1 2 35 43 53 60 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 3 -1 -3 -1 2 4 4 -33 -80 -73 -65 LAND (KM) 1740 1663 1584 1471 1361 1165 988 813 565 276 41 55 583 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.9 35.1 36.5 38.9 42.6 47.3 52.0 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.8 55.6 56.8 57.9 60.1 61.7 62.7 62.6 61.0 58.4 54.9 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 10 8 10 16 22 26 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 17 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -13. -11. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 23. 22. 23. 22. 18. 12. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)