* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 09/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 57 59 56 54 55 51 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 57 59 56 54 55 51 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 52 55 56 58 56 49 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 8 24 20 17 20 24 24 16 24 48 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 -8 -6 -7 -6 -5 -5 -10 -2 8 6 SHEAR DIR 174 21 14 350 330 336 349 354 352 325 211 196 198 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.5 26.6 27.0 26.2 19.7 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 140 141 133 122 118 119 124 118 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 115 118 119 113 103 99 98 103 100 75 70 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -57.0 -56.7 -56.4 -55.9 -55.7 -55.7 -55.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 52 57 57 57 58 57 56 51 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 14 15 16 14 12 8 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 83 86 82 84 78 67 44 13 -3 -8 1 -27 200 MB DIV 14 27 21 18 13 -18 -18 -14 -9 13 36 41 59 700-850 TADV -3 1 1 1 -1 0 -4 -1 0 0 -18 -83 -110 LAND (KM) 1770 1746 1722 1651 1581 1406 1214 1054 917 742 480 184 53 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.6 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.8 35.7 37.1 39.6 43.2 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.3 52.7 53.6 54.4 56.5 58.8 60.6 62.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 9 10 9 8 7 10 15 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 8 10 13 9 0 2 2 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. 0. -4. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 32. 34. 31. 29. 30. 26. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 09/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 09/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)