* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 08/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 67 71 70 70 67 62 59 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 67 71 70 70 67 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 54 58 57 54 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 13 13 12 8 6 5 14 12 19 20 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 7 7 0 -1 0 6 8 5 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 5 42 40 47 34 7 246 250 248 256 252 242 215 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 127 125 122 117 113 109 108 107 108 107 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 123 121 117 110 105 100 98 98 97 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 60 57 59 56 58 61 59 57 51 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 19 22 21 18 20 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 120 114 103 100 95 70 69 67 56 37 29 19 30 200 MB DIV 99 81 64 52 68 23 32 50 77 44 36 2 27 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 2 10 7 13 11 LAND (KM) 1067 1145 1224 1327 1431 1610 1750 1811 1839 1820 1824 1862 1911 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 8 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 42. 46. 45. 45. 42. 37. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 08/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 08/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)