* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/27/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 58 61 64 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 58 51 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 56 53 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 9 7 14 11 19 14 18 10 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 -4 1 -8 0 -5 -2 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 308 358 28 89 34 63 46 67 57 78 71 121 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.6 28.6 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 160 153 148 145 151 158 154 144 132 146 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 146 139 134 131 137 142 138 128 117 129 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 12 12 12 13 11 15 11 14 10 12 700-500 MB RH 65 62 65 62 61 61 57 59 51 51 50 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -25 -24 -12 -10 -10 -14 -18 -15 -11 -20 -26 -31 200 MB DIV 20 5 9 18 16 12 14 -3 4 -6 -13 -3 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -4 1 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6 -3 -10 1 LAND (KM) 55 37 121 113 148 271 430 401 198 -30 -267 -502 -597 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.8 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.8 87.6 89.3 91.2 93.2 95.3 97.7 100.0 102.3 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 100 100 78 21 11 30 38 67 42 12 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/27/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/27/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)