* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 07/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 29 35 42 50 54 58 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 29 35 42 50 39 40 36 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 35 37 33 35 32 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 5 10 15 13 15 19 17 21 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 1 -2 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 5 34 118 200 244 289 285 289 270 275 276 264 290 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 146 148 152 149 145 146 150 151 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 147 148 149 154 149 142 140 141 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 62 61 61 64 58 57 57 55 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 28 24 24 23 23 20 -1 -13 -37 -40 -62 200 MB DIV 25 40 47 45 31 23 16 34 -4 8 -4 34 12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -4 -6 -10 -2 3 0 5 0 3 -4 LAND (KM) 872 768 647 552 504 418 144 39 -61 30 -44 -38 -38 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.7 56.3 57.9 59.5 62.7 65.9 68.9 71.5 73.7 75.4 76.9 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 66 76 76 69 82 74 70 67 77 73 84 9 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 30. 34. 38. 41. 44. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 07/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902011 INVEST 07/22/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 07/22/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)