* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDY AL182012 10/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 56 54 55 57 60 53 38 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 56 54 55 57 60 53 36 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 54 52 53 53 50 38 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 37 40 41 30 34 24 20 29 16 12 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -7 -6 -2 -5 4 14 10 1 5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 204 189 193 198 212 196 173 158 174 156 262 166 120 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.3 21.1 17.4 16.2 15.4 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 126 125 123 123 116 83 73 69 68 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 112 110 108 106 104 98 74 68 64 64 66 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -48.7 -47.0 -47.3 -49.6 -49.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 52 56 50 44 39 43 64 69 70 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 41 41 46 44 46 49 52 51 38 27 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 218 205 206 220 208 225 257 315 395 362 317 268 206 200 MB DIV 105 102 108 104 84 79 92 69 29 80 17 10 23 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -11 -14 -10 -10 -18 17 75 34 -2 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 338 406 463 489 462 432 435 395 184 -49 -284 -330 -216 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.9 29.6 30.4 31.2 32.8 34.8 36.6 38.3 39.5 40.4 41.4 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 76.5 76.0 75.0 74.0 72.4 71.2 71.2 72.8 75.2 78.1 77.8 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 36 25 5 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 12. 10. -2. -12. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 28. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -4. -6. -5. -3. 0. -7. -22. -36. -47. -58. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182012 SANDY 10/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182012 SANDY 10/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)