* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 58 65 65 65 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 54 58 63 51 54 50 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 43 44 37 38 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 3 4 10 21 24 32 35 48 53 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 -4 1 0 6 5 6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 276 221 250 213 237 261 232 244 219 218 209 198 207 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 155 153 152 156 157 160 160 157 150 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 146 141 140 146 149 151 151 146 137 132 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 78 78 77 76 71 68 61 54 46 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 17 18 23 26 27 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 80 88 97 103 113 123 138 160 189 214 236 203 176 200 MB DIV 71 81 73 73 75 92 116 107 136 141 100 42 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 10 12 18 15 3 -2 LAND (KM) 348 390 437 414 388 389 256 84 71 -41 174 377 376 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 2 2 5 7 8 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 109 86 70 66 63 59 48 54 103 12 71 64 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 13. 15. 15. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 29. 33. 40. 40. 40. 36. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)