* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 10/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 39 45 49 49 49 53 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 39 45 49 49 49 53 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 34 33 31 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 9 12 13 19 23 28 29 29 32 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 1 0 0 2 -1 2 2 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 279 307 211 207 232 232 266 244 260 246 253 227 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 153 155 156 155 157 155 159 161 162 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 146 145 146 146 144 144 141 153 164 163 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 7 9 7 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 71 72 73 74 73 72 69 68 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 14 14 16 22 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 52 64 68 73 78 102 120 120 129 129 157 217 210 200 MB DIV 36 45 70 70 57 59 78 67 56 46 61 70 78 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 2 3 10 16 6 LAND (KM) 352 333 312 313 326 364 322 258 226 268 167 55 235 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 15.0 16.5 19.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.2 76.9 77.6 78.2 79.3 80.2 80.8 81.1 80.7 78.5 75.3 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 8 17 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 126 140 136 111 79 54 55 61 66 61 56 94 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 13. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 20. 24. 24. 24. 28. 32. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 10/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 118.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 10/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)