* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 40 41 40 38 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 40 41 40 38 39 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 33 32 31 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 18 20 21 26 32 39 37 36 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 2 -1 3 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 283 287 279 268 265 236 246 224 238 244 293 313 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 156 153 151 153 155 158 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 145 144 141 133 128 125 128 132 136 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 64 66 61 53 47 43 39 38 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -20 -29 -24 -42 -28 -34 -25 -14 -8 -18 -18 200 MB DIV -6 14 21 40 66 7 -4 8 20 -4 -17 -44 -64 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 5 4 1 -3 -3 -12 -2 -1 -1 7 LAND (KM) 289 310 315 346 394 452 456 445 457 416 349 249 136 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.1 73.8 74.4 74.9 75.5 75.6 75.7 75.6 76.0 76.8 78.0 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 4 2 0 2 3 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 70 64 60 61 67 66 58 59 59 77 98 0 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 15. 13. 14. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)