* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 40 43 41 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 36 40 43 41 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 34 35 34 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 21 21 23 24 24 29 34 38 38 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 285 287 279 284 289 267 269 246 253 237 253 260 309 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 161 161 161 161 158 155 152 153 155 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 146 146 145 141 135 130 126 128 132 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 55 58 62 65 67 61 57 51 48 42 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -13 -15 -22 -33 -54 -56 -59 -38 -27 -13 -28 200 MB DIV -6 -5 -9 1 6 32 16 -11 7 5 -12 -15 -70 700-850 TADV -3 1 4 -2 1 4 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 230 250 240 248 262 320 337 290 258 239 183 118 48 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.4 25.2 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.8 73.5 74.3 75.0 76.2 76.9 77.3 77.6 77.8 78.4 79.1 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 72 72 46 87 83 80 84 89 100 96 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -12. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 18. 16. 16. 18. 20. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)