* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 39 40 40 42 43 42 41 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 39 40 40 42 43 42 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 15 19 17 13 18 22 22 27 30 39 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 3 0 6 11 6 6 3 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 258 255 263 268 275 295 315 281 268 271 254 234 223 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.5 24.9 23.7 23.8 23.0 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 135 136 133 123 108 99 99 94 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 125 123 122 126 127 116 100 90 89 84 77 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 63 60 57 57 55 57 50 45 44 41 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 14 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 4 -2 -12 -24 14 24 58 34 26 48 79 200 MB DIV 17 20 31 5 16 51 62 74 34 22 7 24 18 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 6 6 23 34 82 34 0 -15 -24 -15 LAND (KM) 1872 1923 1977 2023 2070 2260 2200 1864 1595 1404 1257 1055 777 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 7 12 19 21 21 19 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 29 39 34 38 44 43 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 17 CX,CY: -6/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED