* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 56 56 57 56 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 56 56 57 56 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 45 47 48 48 46 44 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 9 8 11 22 18 17 18 17 13 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 1 0 5 12 9 14 11 3 4 SHEAR DIR 12 302 279 238 244 294 298 300 303 312 315 283 244 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.0 24.9 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 137 134 135 136 136 127 116 106 102 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 133 129 124 123 128 130 120 107 96 92 90 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 66 63 63 56 56 58 54 46 40 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 17 18 16 16 16 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 11 11 11 4 -23 0 -17 -11 -14 27 -17 200 MB DIV 80 79 40 41 47 27 46 81 82 79 17 -9 10 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 4 4 6 20 40 68 38 14 3 -15 LAND (KM) 1742 1787 1843 1887 1930 2040 2260 2096 1727 1468 1297 1163 1101 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 8 13 18 18 16 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 28 29 39 29 37 28 13 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 26. 27. 26. 24. 22. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED