* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 52 54 56 56 55 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 52 54 56 56 55 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 42 44 45 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 6 10 13 12 17 16 25 27 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 4 1 2 3 8 5 8 1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 78 2 129 252 231 254 275 301 304 290 290 253 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.1 25.2 24.1 22.6 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 139 137 134 135 137 131 114 105 95 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 140 138 134 130 123 124 131 129 112 101 88 79 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 63 57 52 55 51 52 54 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 14 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 27 23 24 17 1 6 24 6 1 -22 -44 200 MB DIV 62 78 63 45 45 16 22 54 74 38 46 16 41 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 3 4 2 8 25 82 85 42 4 11 LAND (KM) 1725 1744 1773 1826 1885 2020 2149 2263 1897 1503 1188 830 412 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 12 12 11 7 10 17 26 33 32 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 26 25 25 29 35 31 15 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/02/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED