* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 51 56 59 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 51 56 59 61 62 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 40 43 45 46 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 10 11 15 13 15 14 25 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 1 0 3 6 2 3 11 12 2 7 4 SHEAR DIR 289 92 180 153 244 241 269 284 306 258 273 235 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.3 24.3 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 142 140 135 137 137 135 121 104 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 146 142 137 125 127 130 131 117 98 91 88 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 70 67 70 64 63 61 53 54 55 47 44 40 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 13 16 16 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 23 22 22 24 6 3 38 73 65 65 44 200 MB DIV 46 51 73 62 43 45 28 37 77 95 31 44 22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 0 4 11 64 38 -6 -3 7 LAND (KM) 1666 1660 1664 1689 1728 1854 2010 2284 2087 1752 1509 1342 1166 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 12 9 10 15 20 24 24 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 25 29 30 37 37 34 33 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED