* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 52 62 72 79 85 90 96 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 52 62 72 79 85 90 96 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 45 57 69 79 87 93 96 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 6 9 10 15 14 11 11 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -8 -3 -4 -4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 55 84 80 52 58 68 58 63 34 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 146 146 145 145 143 140 140 137 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 148 145 143 140 137 133 129 131 128 119 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 72 75 71 69 62 63 51 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 18 13 14 12 12 5 4 -26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 62 45 48 84 41 32 9 3 -12 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1489 1511 1541 1580 1558 1497 1476 1480 1519 1633 1826 1962 1984 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.9 18.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.9 37.8 38.6 39.3 40.6 41.5 42.2 42.5 42.1 40.9 40.3 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 7 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 16 13 14 25 34 33 32 33 26 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 27. 37. 47. 54. 60. 65. 71. 74. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED