* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 71 78 85 90 96 99 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 71 78 85 90 96 99 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 41 54 67 79 90 100 107 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 0 6 7 12 15 9 8 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -5 -5 0 -1 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 300 62 84 73 59 66 65 58 20 44 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 147 147 146 144 141 139 139 140 131 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 149 147 145 142 137 133 131 136 145 135 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 72 72 73 69 67 59 53 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 29 20 14 16 14 5 7 10 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 68 64 46 48 75 40 26 3 3 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -5 1 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1516 1525 1541 1577 1618 1571 1538 1567 1659 1896 2097 1482 985 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.9 17.7 19.8 22.2 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.9 36.8 37.7 38.5 39.9 41.1 41.8 42.1 40.9 37.1 31.3 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 8 16 25 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 20 14 12 20 34 33 33 29 22 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 36. 46. 53. 60. 65. 71. 74. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/01/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED