* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/01/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 41 47 51 53 55 54 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 41 47 51 53 55 54 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 33 37 41 44 48 51 54 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 7 11 8 12 14 14 14 17 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 1 -1 0 -3 3 3 0 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 274 260 276 267 257 269 298 304 314 320 331 351 22 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 141 142 141 136 133 130 132 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 140 141 140 137 129 124 120 123 125 123 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 72 74 75 74 71 71 67 63 56 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 58 44 39 29 16 10 -2 -13 -19 -32 -25 -43 200 MB DIV 47 43 51 72 73 69 64 34 14 12 10 32 18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 1 3 10 12 19 LAND (KM) 1551 1653 1698 1696 1703 1771 1747 1710 1730 1823 2004 2228 1908 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.8 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.4 18.8 20.1 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.1 33.2 34.3 35.3 37.2 38.8 40.3 41.3 41.6 40.7 38.4 35.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 26 22 18 18 28 38 39 44 41 28 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/01/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/01/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED