* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 10/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 51 54 53 53 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 51 54 53 53 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 42 46 49 52 54 56 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 15 12 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 246 276 261 252 271 243 280 290 306 300 296 313 332 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 140 140 141 141 136 131 130 131 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 141 140 139 140 138 130 123 120 120 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 70 73 74 77 70 71 69 62 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 63 50 45 30 21 10 -5 -15 -35 -37 -21 200 MB DIV 19 50 45 63 81 50 90 34 23 3 29 12 28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 3 9 24 24 LAND (KM) 1457 1542 1629 1712 1751 1811 1889 1841 1860 1920 2053 2291 1962 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.8 14.1 15.5 16.9 18.3 19.7 21.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.0 31.9 32.9 33.8 35.6 37.3 39.1 40.4 41.3 41.1 39.6 36.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 7 8 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 24 22 20 17 21 33 36 45 44 40 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 28. 28. 26. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 10/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 10/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED