* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 09/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 44 47 49 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 33 38 44 47 49 50 49 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 8 6 8 8 9 11 16 14 13 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 4 6 SHEAR DIR 249 232 276 263 258 272 270 283 313 301 295 303 320 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 139 139 141 140 134 131 131 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 141 140 138 138 138 136 128 122 122 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 70 72 76 76 75 71 71 65 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 80 74 61 47 32 19 9 -2 -12 -26 -54 -43 200 MB DIV -2 19 49 47 65 72 68 60 38 -1 13 19 20 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -1 -5 -1 -2 2 6 10 40 LAND (KM) 1354 1438 1516 1589 1665 1790 1859 1890 1864 1901 2006 2257 1922 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 12.1 13.3 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.9 30.7 31.6 32.4 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.2 40.3 40.8 39.6 35.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 9 16 21 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 25 22 21 16 17 23 34 36 41 38 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 09/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 09/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED