* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/02/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 44 44 44 48 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 44 44 44 48 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 41 42 45 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 14 18 17 22 23 22 22 4 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 1 -4 -5 -3 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 254 277 295 293 281 305 294 305 306 305 217 62 55 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 134 134 135 136 136 137 136 134 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 113 115 114 114 114 114 114 112 109 112 113 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 52 50 51 44 49 44 47 44 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -14 -2 -4 -14 -17 -53 -63 -58 -49 -47 -42 -58 200 MB DIV 26 15 -5 4 -2 -9 -15 -1 5 -18 -20 -46 -23 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -5 1 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2401 2450 2498 2488 2460 2383 2324 2254 2212 2216 2228 2196 2143 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.6 41.1 41.6 42.1 42.8 43.3 43.5 43.2 42.5 42.2 42.5 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 0 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 16 17 17 17 18 20 19 18 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 901 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 23. 27. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/02/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/02/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)