* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 09/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 48 50 49 47 48 52 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 45 48 50 49 47 48 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 39 44 48 50 52 54 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 20 16 19 20 24 23 28 29 18 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 217 225 232 251 259 279 301 290 302 293 293 297 9 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 136 137 138 137 137 137 136 134 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 115 116 116 116 115 114 113 114 114 110 107 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -54.9 -55.3 -56.2 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 55 56 52 51 48 48 45 50 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -37 -37 -24 -19 -21 -35 -54 -68 -65 -60 -47 -44 200 MB DIV -7 1 20 13 7 10 -14 2 0 -5 17 -27 -30 700-850 TADV -11 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 1 1 3 0 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 2196 2269 2342 2375 2338 2266 2205 2143 2091 2059 2068 2118 2146 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.4 39.2 40.0 40.7 42.0 43.1 43.7 44.0 43.4 42.1 40.9 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 15 15 17 20 23 23 20 15 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 23. 25. 24. 22. 23. 27. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 09/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 09/02/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)