* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 08/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 64 73 79 85 84 84 83 87 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 64 73 79 85 84 84 83 87 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 52 61 69 73 75 75 74 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 13 18 12 11 14 18 25 18 25 22 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 6 6 3 5 3 8 0 2 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 62 70 50 35 24 359 349 340 318 324 302 298 282 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 133 133 134 140 143 147 150 152 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 133 132 131 131 131 135 136 137 137 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 65 66 69 66 66 63 60 63 65 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 19 20 20 21 23 24 27 25 26 26 32 850 MB ENV VOR 133 132 130 125 111 94 71 48 39 0 -12 -16 23 200 MB DIV 62 58 62 67 62 54 57 81 55 32 58 57 53 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -7 -8 -6 -7 -6 -4 -15 -3 3 13 11 LAND (KM) 1677 1570 1475 1415 1354 1303 1319 1159 1015 830 769 752 753 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 14 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 27 26 28 37 36 60 66 66 51 39 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 6. 7. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 49. 55. 54. 54. 53. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 08/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 08/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)