* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 08/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 48 61 71 78 87 88 91 90 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 48 61 71 78 87 88 91 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 52 61 69 75 76 75 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 15 12 9 10 18 20 16 18 23 31 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 0 6 1 1 0 7 5 1 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 60 59 59 55 22 349 335 313 308 283 303 310 278 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 130 132 132 132 133 137 144 148 150 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 129 131 131 130 131 133 138 139 136 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 67 68 69 69 67 63 56 56 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 20 21 21 25 25 28 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 137 141 136 133 128 109 87 62 43 20 6 -9 -15 200 MB DIV 32 64 60 66 85 47 62 62 69 60 42 27 60 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -5 -5 -3 -8 0 -4 -4 2 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1811 1713 1624 1554 1497 1405 1399 1322 1181 932 780 721 756 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.9 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.1 22.1 22.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 39.0 40.3 41.7 43.1 46.0 49.0 51.8 54.6 57.3 59.4 60.7 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 14 14 15 15 16 15 14 12 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 19 30 36 36 38 46 54 64 49 44 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 352 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 36. 46. 53. 62. 63. 67. 65. 65. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 08/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 08/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)