* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 24 27 29 33 35 38 42 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 24 27 29 33 35 38 42 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 29 31 35 39 43 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 9 7 11 7 16 11 17 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 233 216 240 268 236 263 252 238 253 261 266 281 307 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 125 125 127 128 131 135 141 149 155 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 113 113 114 116 119 123 128 133 138 136 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 45 41 41 39 39 35 36 34 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 15 16 11 -11 -36 -50 -80 -94 -90 -74 -89 200 MB DIV -4 3 -7 -4 -9 -22 -5 -23 2 -5 37 -9 -2 700-850 TADV 9 10 8 6 6 7 3 6 2 11 5 9 6 LAND (KM) 2106 2095 2087 2077 2071 2027 1880 1699 1516 1366 1268 1243 1281 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.2 25.0 26.0 27.1 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.3 43.1 43.9 44.6 46.3 48.3 50.3 52.5 54.6 56.6 58.2 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 11 17 17 15 23 30 29 30 23 28 30 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 17. 22. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)