* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 40 44 49 52 54 58 57 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 40 44 49 52 54 58 57 60 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 46 48 50 51 53 57 65 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 8 8 10 8 13 9 14 6 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 7 10 14 10 8 -5 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 138 177 212 229 206 228 270 249 209 197 123 35 17 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 134 132 132 132 134 138 144 149 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 135 134 132 131 130 130 133 140 146 149 151 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 58 57 59 55 50 57 54 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 16 13 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 58 49 48 45 42 29 35 16 10 -9 2 200 MB DIV 22 14 25 27 32 51 14 31 24 -19 -17 -16 13 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -4 0 7 11 15 8 8 8 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1744 1760 1745 1652 1570 1428 1318 1282 1224 1143 959 732 648 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 15 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 17 21 26 17 25 27 38 42 52 38 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 28. 27. 30. 33. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)