* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 49 53 56 63 66 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 49 53 56 63 66 69 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 44 49 54 59 65 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 7 11 3 5 4 11 5 13 5 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 4 3 7 7 9 6 11 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 127 110 148 174 199 234 207 289 274 285 176 336 48 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 139 138 137 133 132 132 133 139 145 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 141 139 138 132 130 129 131 138 143 146 146 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 67 63 61 61 61 57 64 62 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 15 16 14 13 12 10 13 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 61 63 63 64 57 52 35 31 38 27 28 31 200 MB DIV 53 44 2 -5 10 0 15 13 31 44 31 -24 -33 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 4 10 7 7 5 8 6 0 LAND (KM) 1723 1713 1714 1725 1747 1578 1466 1340 1252 1193 1080 797 517 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 13 12 16 26 20 24 25 34 45 46 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 38. 41. 44. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)