* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 59 65 66 70 70 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 59 65 66 70 70 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 34 41 47 53 58 62 64 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 3 5 1 13 4 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 2 8 5 20 16 17 0 3 SHEAR DIR 63 97 122 84 104 230 265 278 297 247 238 274 28 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 138 140 140 137 136 134 134 137 143 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 141 143 143 139 137 134 133 135 140 144 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 68 65 64 62 60 59 64 67 66 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 14 13 12 12 12 14 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 58 59 63 61 56 49 42 43 39 38 37 200 MB DIV 60 55 33 -4 -6 13 30 32 39 30 53 -8 7 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 2 6 3 6 9 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1612 1708 1679 1664 1664 1540 1372 1244 1166 1157 1022 938 655 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 13 16 17 18 23 27 24 36 44 47 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 29. 34. 40. 41. 45. 45. 54. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)