* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/21/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 48 55 59 64 64 64 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 48 55 59 64 64 64 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 60 65 67 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 8 19 27 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 3 3 1 4 0 2 0 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 90 127 126 119 139 188 168 203 241 229 215 262 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 137 136 131 128 127 131 135 140 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 134 134 136 135 128 125 124 128 132 135 140 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 70 67 64 59 51 49 47 48 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 14 12 10 9 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 55 52 50 53 55 50 37 23 8 -22 -35 200 MB DIV 31 55 61 37 15 25 31 4 0 24 32 0 -21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 8 11 11 9 14 17 12 LAND (KM) 1496 1584 1674 1731 1730 1792 1803 1719 1611 1534 1539 1429 1186 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.8 14.1 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.7 20.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.5 32.4 33.4 34.3 36.3 38.3 40.5 43.2 46.1 49.1 52.0 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 4 7 15 16 20 20 22 22 29 36 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30. 34. 39. 39. 39. 38. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/21/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/21/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)