* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/21/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 56 64 72 78 84 89 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 56 64 72 78 84 89 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 55 69 84 98 106 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 6 9 5 4 8 9 9 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 3 2 1 0 -5 -7 -4 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 63 99 100 131 157 87 349 51 74 68 9 14 276 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 137 136 137 139 137 137 136 137 139 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 140 143 140 138 134 135 133 135 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 72 73 74 68 67 65 63 61 61 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 49 50 52 52 36 30 27 19 15 13 21 200 MB DIV 28 28 35 60 30 -3 4 0 11 19 42 40 34 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1307 1418 1526 1695 1642 1606 1629 1557 1407 1268 1136 1021 971 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 14 17 14 9 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 11 3 7 13 17 15 24 22 29 31 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 31. 39. 47. 53. 59. 64. 65. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/21/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/21/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)