* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 53 57 59 59 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 53 57 59 59 59 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 43 47 52 57 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 13 10 10 11 6 4 8 16 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 3 6 6 7 1 4 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 36 88 109 118 141 161 161 214 178 208 232 244 229 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 132 135 138 136 133 128 126 127 128 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 130 134 137 135 131 124 122 123 124 128 131 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 69 67 67 61 56 50 49 47 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 48 51 52 52 51 52 52 42 36 23 14 0 200 MB DIV 31 27 27 46 58 7 3 17 5 2 14 27 19 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 0 -2 1 3 8 8 7 6 4 6 LAND (KM) 1176 1261 1337 1414 1495 1682 1888 1945 1825 1683 1569 1503 1451 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.5 13.7 14.8 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.9 32.9 35.0 37.2 39.4 42.0 44.8 47.6 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 9 9 8 5 13 15 13 23 21 17 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 25. 28. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)