* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 47 48 50 50 48 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 47 48 50 50 48 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 40 41 41 42 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 2 9 12 14 16 21 21 28 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 12 10 5 2 5 7 2 0 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 62 43 109 194 188 235 221 221 202 217 222 234 230 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 137 137 136 132 129 125 122 123 124 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 135 135 134 130 126 120 117 118 119 121 124 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 65 63 61 60 60 55 57 54 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 49 54 54 55 62 54 49 44 35 23 2 200 MB DIV 19 11 25 30 43 44 22 22 35 19 27 27 49 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 5 2 0 1 3 7 6 6 9 8 LAND (KM) 1104 1213 1323 1434 1546 1795 1928 1819 1715 1611 1536 1525 1460 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.5 29.5 30.6 31.7 34.1 36.5 38.8 40.9 43.2 45.7 48.2 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 11 14 15 21 21 14 21 23 22 20 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 23. 25. 25. 23. 20. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)