* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 42 43 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 42 43 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 33 34 33 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 4 6 13 20 23 24 34 36 46 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 14 12 10 11 2 4 4 6 -3 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 348 121 153 171 193 210 233 233 214 204 223 223 220 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 132 133 134 130 126 123 122 122 123 126 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 130 132 132 127 123 119 117 117 118 120 123 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 60 59 54 56 54 56 50 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 47 49 51 55 50 48 42 45 27 13 -10 200 MB DIV 15 22 18 17 16 42 26 37 19 30 17 34 28 700-850 TADV 7 3 3 5 6 2 3 4 11 11 11 12 14 LAND (KM) 894 1005 1118 1241 1365 1626 1902 1960 1829 1726 1637 1613 1551 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.9 30.1 32.6 35.2 37.6 40.0 42.4 44.9 47.6 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 11 11 16 18 9 11 18 22 22 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 16. 13. 10. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)