* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 47 48 49 49 49 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 47 48 49 49 49 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 38 39 38 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 14 20 22 26 21 26 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 8 7 7 7 3 5 1 5 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 85 110 121 131 136 143 184 195 207 209 210 221 222 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 131 131 133 130 125 121 120 121 121 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 128 129 131 129 122 117 114 114 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 65 64 64 60 51 51 49 48 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 19 28 36 46 47 55 51 48 36 27 8 -2 200 MB DIV 26 23 11 14 13 8 28 -6 16 21 14 15 21 700-850 TADV 15 9 5 2 0 3 6 3 14 15 15 9 11 LAND (KM) 499 603 695 796 901 1149 1419 1707 1987 2004 1898 1800 1766 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.5 25.6 28.1 30.7 33.4 36.0 38.5 41.0 43.4 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 5 4 6 11 15 11 8 1 4 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED