* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 63 75 85 91 96 98 100 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 51 63 75 85 91 96 98 100 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 42 54 68 84 98 106 110 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 4 10 6 7 4 8 7 11 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -4 -6 -3 -3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 345 11 65 17 357 14 21 319 324 291 305 252 259 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 132 134 137 144 147 148 149 147 147 153 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 135 136 139 147 149 149 149 145 144 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 63 60 62 57 56 61 60 60 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 82 87 91 93 84 79 79 94 93 95 96 200 MB DIV 61 57 56 50 40 54 72 69 55 55 34 45 36 700-850 TADV -6 -6 0 -2 -4 -4 0 -2 -2 -3 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1451 1347 1267 1189 1049 748 599 284 174 145 94 33 139 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 20 20 19 18 18 16 15 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 23 31 43 58 59 67 67 78 78 110 107 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 38. 50. 60. 66. 71. 73. 75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)