* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 34 46 58 72 84 94 100 103 101 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 34 46 58 72 84 94 100 103 101 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 27 33 42 54 72 90 104 108 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 4 7 8 11 6 6 3 3 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 1 1 -4 -3 -2 1 1 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 9 93 304 347 6 69 17 71 6 307 325 284 305 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 126 126 126 132 136 143 147 148 149 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 128 128 127 135 139 146 150 150 149 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 67 64 65 60 57 55 53 62 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 34 40 54 68 75 91 107 95 83 70 71 72 57 200 MB DIV 34 39 49 42 40 67 37 36 58 77 63 43 41 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 -4 -2 -4 1 -2 7 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1963 1833 1694 1573 1458 1255 1092 776 596 292 177 162 65 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 17 15 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 11 16 20 26 36 54 59 67 61 66 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 21. 33. 47. 59. 69. 75. 78. 76. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/19/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)