* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942012 08/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 63 70 74 72 75 72 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 63 70 74 72 75 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 48 54 60 67 74 80 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 6 7 17 13 18 13 21 19 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 3 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 43 16 9 351 296 317 305 317 311 298 280 260 241 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 124 124 124 126 132 141 144 145 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 126 123 123 123 126 132 143 145 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 62 61 56 51 48 48 45 46 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 17 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 35 26 24 30 36 45 67 77 50 32 27 23 15 200 MB DIV 33 41 22 26 11 19 37 43 32 43 14 31 49 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -3 0 2 2 8 6 3 3 4 10 5 LAND (KM) 1625 1794 1964 1969 1864 1678 1519 1387 1094 760 348 133 84 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.2 35.8 37.5 39.1 42.6 46.4 50.4 54.4 58.5 62.5 66.2 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 17 18 19 19 20 19 19 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 12 10 7 15 23 34 46 35 60 58 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 33. 40. 44. 42. 45. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942012 INVEST 08/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942012 INVEST 08/19/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)